Let me be perfectly honest with you - when I first started following Turkish football closely about fifteen years ago, I never imagined I'd be writing this article with genuine optimism about their qualification chances. There's something different happening with this squad, something that reminds me of that magical 2002 World Cup run when they shocked everyone by finishing third. The recent qualifying campaign has shown flashes of that same spirit, and I find myself genuinely believing they might just pull it off.
I was watching their crucial match against the Netherlands last month, and what struck me wasn't just the 2-1 victory but the manner of it. They didn't park the bus after taking the lead early in the second half. Instead, they kept pressing, kept believing in their system, and created three more clear chances that could have made it 4-1 on another day. The statistics showed they had 48% possession but created more expected goals - 2.3 compared to Netherlands' 1.1. That's not luck, that's strategic execution.
What really cemented my growing confidence was hearing midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu's post-match comments that perfectly captured their current mentality. He said, "I wouldn't call it [the win] lucky. I would never call it lucky. I feel like we just put in all the effort. Everybody was in the same mindset and everybody wanted the same thing and I think that's why we got the straight-sets win today." That phrase "everybody was in the same mindset" might sound like standard athlete speak, but having followed this team through multiple disappointing campaigns, I can tell you this represents a fundamental shift. For years, Turkey had talented individuals but never quite gelled as a unit when it mattered most.
Looking at their remaining fixtures, I'd estimate their probability of qualification sits around 68% based on current form and opponent difficulty. They need approximately 7 more points from their final 4 matches to secure at least a playoff spot, though 9 points would virtually guarantee direct qualification. The tricky away game against Norway in Oslo next month will be the real test - that's where we'll see if this newfound unity holds up under pressure.
From my perspective as someone who's analyzed European football for over two decades, the difference maker has been manager Stefan Kuntz's ability to blend experienced campaigners like Burak Yılmaz with exciting young talents like 19-year-old Arda Güler. The average age of their starting lineup has dropped from 28.7 during the last European Championship qualifiers to 25.4 in the current campaign. That injection of youthful energy combined with veteran wisdom creates a potent mix that's difficult to counter.
I've noticed their defensive organization has improved dramatically too. They've conceded only 4 goals in their last 8 qualifying matches compared to 15 in the previous 8. That's not just better defending - it's better tactical discipline across the entire team. The forwards are tracking back, the midfield is compact, and they're not getting caught on counter-attacks like they used to.
The real question isn't whether they have the talent - they absolutely do. The question is whether they can maintain this collective mindset when facing adversity. We saw glimpses of it when they came from behind to draw with Latvia in September, scoring the equalizer in the 87th minute despite being down to ten men. That kind of resilience is what separates teams that qualify from those that don't.
If I'm being completely transparent, I've been burned before by getting excited about Turkish qualification prospects. The 2018 World Cup qualifying cycle still stings - they finished fourth in their group behind Iceland, Croatia, and Ukraine despite having what looked like a favorable draw. But this feels different. There's a tangible sense of belief that's been missing for years.
Their remaining schedule includes two home games where they've been particularly strong, winning 83% of their home qualifiers under Kuntz. The Türk Telekom Stadium in Istanbul has become a fortress again, and that could be the decisive factor. I'm predicting they'll pick up 7 points from the remaining matches, which should be enough for at least a playoff spot, though I wouldn't be surprised if they grab one of the two automatic qualification places.
What really convinces me this team is different is how they've responded to setbacks. Earlier in the campaign, when they lost unexpectedly to the Faroe Islands, they bounced back with three consecutive wins rather than letting the disappointment spiral. That mental toughness is something I haven't seen from a Turkish side in years.
At the end of the day, qualification often comes down to moments - a crucial save, a timely goal, a refereeing decision. But what I'm seeing from this Turkish team suggests they're creating their own luck through preparation and unity. They're not waiting for things to happen; they're making them happen. And that's why I believe, perhaps for the first time in a decade, that we'll see Turkey competing at the next major tournament. The pieces are falling into place in a way that feels both surprising and inevitable to those of us who've followed their journey.
